Feb 05, 2026
Brazil Soy Estimate Unchanged at 179.0 Million Tons
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Soybeans in Brazil were 10% harvested as of late last week compared to 9% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 5% for the week. Soybean harvesting has started in nearly all the major producing states with Mato Grosso 24.9% harvested and Parana 5%. Hot and dry weather is becoming more of a concern in southern Brazil, especially in Rio Grande do Sul.
Showers favored most of Brazil last week, but amounts were relatively light in most areas. The heaviest showers were limited to southern and western Mato Grosso and southern Goias. Dryness is still lingering in central and far southern growing areas. Weekend rains favored northern and central regions. The forecast for this week is calling for rain across central Brazil. Continued dry weather in Rio Grande do Sul is increasing crop stress and lowering the soybean yield potential.
Brazilian soybean yields for the most part continue to be very good, but for the first time, there are reports of disappointing yields in southern Mato Grosso, Goias, and southern Mato Grosso do Sul. The yields are still satisfactory, they are just not as high as expected. These are areas where the rainfall continued to be irregular in December and January.
The big unknown in Brazil is soybean yields in Rio Grande do Sul where hot and dry weather is an ongoing concern. Unfavorable weather is also impacting parts of Santa Catarina, Parana, and southern Mato Grosso do Sul. Therefor, the 2025/26 Brazil soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 179.0 million tons with a neutral to slightly higher bias.
Mato Grosso - Soybeans in Mato Grosso were 24.9% harvested as of late last week compared to 12.2% last year and 12.5% average. This represents an advance of 11% for the week. The most advanced harvest is in the mid-north region where 35% of the soybeans have been harvested. Below is the soybean harvest pace in Mato Grosso for January 30, 2026 from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea).
Parana - Soybeans in Parana were 1% in vegetative development, 15% flowering, 60% filling pods, 24% mature, 5% harvested and rated 1% poor, 10% average, and 89% good as of late last week.
Rio Grand do Sul - Parts of Rio Grande do Sul have been hot and dry for three weeks with scant rain in the near-term forecast. Approximately 15% of the soybeans in the state are filling pods and farmers fear the yields are being negatively impacted. For some unfortunate farmers, this marks five of the last seven years with disappointing crops.