Mar 20, 2026
Brazil Corn Estimate Unchanged at 133.0 Million Tons
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The northern safrinha corn area received rain last week, while the southern safrinha area remained mostly dry. The forecast is calling for generally dry conditions in the southern safrinha area which is especially important for Parana which has been in a drying trend for several weeks.
Safrinha corn planting in Brazil was 91% as of last Friday compared to 97% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 9% for the week. The planting window has essentially closed with 9% of the corn not planted or 1.3 million hectares. The question now is will farmers continue to plant their last few hectares or switch to an alternative crop, if any. Last year at this time there were 500,000 hectares left to plant.
Brazil's corn estimate was left unchanged this week at 133.0 million tons, but there is a definite downside risk to the crop due to late planting and developing dryness in the southern safrinha area.
Mato Grosso - Safrinha corn planting in Mato Grosso was 99.2% as of last Friday compared to 99.4% last year and 98.7% average according to Imea. This represents an advance of 5.5% for the week. Some municipalities have received 700 to 900 mm of precipitation (28 to 36 inches) during the last 60 days resulting in corn being planted 20 days later than desired. Hardest hit municipalities include Diamantino, Novo Mutum, Vera, Sinop, Claudia, Matupa, and Querencia. In these areas farmers are worried that if the summer rains end early, their corn yields could suffer significant losses.
The forecast is for below normal rainfall during April across central and southern safrinha areas in Brazil which would stress crop growth and above normal rainfall across northern safrinha areas which would favor safrinha growth. Below is the safrinha corn planting pace in Mato Grosso for March 13, 2026 from Imea.
Parana - Safrinha corn planting in Parana reached 74% as of earlier last week and the crop is 16% germinating, 83% in vegetative development, and 1% pollinating. Due to the lateness of the planting and the fact that the planting window has closed, there is a high probability that not all the intended safrinha corn will actually be planted. Dry weather in western Parana already has farmers concerned about the yield potential of their safrinha corn.
Rio Grande do Sul - Emater increased their estimate of the state's corn production 0.2 million tons to 5.9 million. The increase is due to an increase in the planted acreage from 785,000 hectares last year to 803,000 hectares this year. Corn harvesting in Rio Grande do Sul is approaching three quarters complete.